Red Chilli: Tight Now, Abundant Ahead?
A shifting supply outlook
India’s red chilli market is entering a transition. Lower carryover stocks and delayed new-crop sowing in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are supporting prices in the near term.
A sharp expansion in Madhya Pradesh acreage, backed by higher prices and renewed farmer interest, could improve supplies as the season progresses.
South India crop delayed as rainfall disrupts sowing
Red chilli sowing in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana has been delayed by nearly a month, mainly because of inadequate rainfall. Recent rains have helped sowing gather pace. In irrigated areas, around 60% of sowing is already complete, and attractive prices are encouraging farmers to expand acreage.
The rainfall shortfall is sharpest in Andhra Pradesh (−24%) and Karnataka (−30%). Madhya Pradesh (−4%) and Telangana (−17%) remain within the normal range. In Andhra Pradesh, overall cropped area had reached only about 1.62 lakh ha as of the first week of September.
Large-scale new-crop availability from the southern producing regions is therefore likely to arrive about a month later than usual, extending the period of tight old-crop supplies.
Chilli-growing regions: rainfall status (1 June–30 September 2026)
Actual rainfall is about 4% below normal in Madhya Pradesh, 24% in Andhra Pradesh, 17% in Telangana and 30% in Karnataka. IMD classifies rainfall as deficient at 20% or more below normal. Deviations within ±19% are treated as normal.
State-wise sowing and arrival status
| State | Area vs last year | Sowing | Arrivals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madhya Pradesh | Doubled | Completed | Started; peak expected in October |
| Andhra Pradesh & Telangana | +30–35% | About a month late; finish by mid-October | New crop shifts from January to February |
| Karnataka | +25–30% | Completed, 15–20 days late | From November |
Madhya Pradesh emerges as the key supply story
While the southern crop is running late, Madhya Pradesh is moving the other way. Early new-crop arrivals have already started, although meaningful arrival pressure is expected to build during October.
Bediya mandi arrivals have risen to 12,000–15,000 bags a day. New Fulkut chilli opened at Rs.22,500–23,500/qtl.
Chilli acreage in the state has almost doubled this season, supported by attractive farmer realisations and favourable weather after sowing. If crop conditions hold, Madhya Pradesh production is estimated at about 2.5 lakh MT, against roughly 1.2 lakh MT last season.
A strong Madhya Pradesh crop could start easing the present tightness before the delayed Andhra Pradesh and Telangana crops reach the market.
Tight stocks continue to provide a price cushion
Lower cultivation last season cut production and drew down stocks at the major chilli trading centres. Current industry estimates put stocks roughly 23–29% below last year across Guntur, Khammam and Warangal.
Arrivals have already fallen sharply. Daily arrivals are about 10,000–12,000 bags in Guntur, 8,000–10,000 bags in Khammam and 5,000–6,000 bags in Warangal.
| Market | Current stocks | Last year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guntur | 34.5 lakh bags | 44.5 lakh bags | ↓23% |
| Khammam | 14.5 lakh bags | 19.0 lakh bags | ↓24% |
| Warangal | 12.5 lakh bags | 17.5 lakh bags | ↓29% |
Red chilli stocks remain lower than last year
Export volumes weaken despite higher realisations
Indian red chilli exports from April to July are down about 32% from the same period last year. Higher prices protected export value, which rose 8.3% even as volume fell.
Weak buying from China, along with softer demand from some other importing markets, has constrained shipment volumes.
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export volume | 2.50 lakh MT | 1.70 lakh MT | ↓32% |
| Export value | Rs.3,680.82 crore | Rs.3,987.06 crore | ↑8.3% |
Market outlook
- Near term: lower stocks, reduced arrivals and delayed sowing in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana should support prices and limit a sharp downside.
- Further ahead: rising Madhya Pradesh arrivals could pressure the market, particularly if the projected 2.5 lakh MT crop materialises.
- Price direction will depend on the pace of Madhya Pradesh arrivals, crop and weather conditions in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and any recovery in export demand, particularly from China.