Red Chilli Prices: Is the Weakness Temporary?
Agri Research Team | FarMart
Price Update
- Red chilli markets witnessed a broad monthly correction, as exports and domestic buying slowed at elevated levels.
- Weekly price movements varied across varieties and trading centres.
- Warangal (Wonder Hot): Rs.25,000/qtl (↓ Rs.3,250 WoW; ↓ Rs.5,000 MoM)
- Warangal (Teja): Rs.19,950/qtl (↓ Rs.800 WoW; ↓ Rs.925 MoM)
- Khammam (Teja): Rs.21,113/qtl (↓ Rs.137 WoW; ↓ Rs.562 MoM)
- Khammam (Fatki): unchanged at Rs.13,250/qtl
- Guntur (Teja): rose by Rs.100 WoW to Rs.20,850/qtl; ↓ Rs.750 MoM
- Guntur (341 variety): gained Rs.250 WoW to Rs.23,500/qtl; ↓ Rs.1,000 MoM
- Guntur (Aarmoor): steady WoW at Rs.21,250/qtl; ↓ Rs.1,000 MoM
- Overall, red chilli prices declined across all varieties, while tight stocks and delayed arrivals may prevent a sharp price decline.
Teja Chilli Price Trend
Guntur Teja Prices: Year-on-Year Trend
Arrivals
- Red chilli arrivals declined across major markets as most of the 2025–26 crop has already been marketed.
- Daily arrivals have fallen to around 45,000 bags in Guntur, 10,000 bags in Khammam and 4,000–5,000 bags in Warangal.
- Despite tighter supplies, prices remained steady to weak due to limited buying interest at elevated prices.
Red Chilli Arrival Comparison
Guntur Arrivals vs. Teja Prices
Red Chilli Stocks
- Red chilli stocks across major markets are 22–29% lower YoY, indicating tight availability and limiting significant price downside.
Sowing & Production
- South India: Sowing in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana began nearly a month late because of inadequate rainfall, delaying new-crop availability.
- Higher prices have encouraged acreage expansion, while Karnataka is also reported to have planted more area.
- Weather, pests and disease remain key production risks.
- Madhya Pradesh: Planting is reportedly about twice last year's level.
- Production could rise from 28–30 lakh bags to 55–60 lakh bags, subject to favourable weather and disease-free crop conditions.
- New arrivals are expected from late October/November (likely to be delayed by a month) and may ease prices as supply improves.
Exports
- Indian red chilli exports during Jan–Jun 2026 remained 43% lower YoY, mainly due to elevated Indian prices and weak Chinese buying.
- Shipments improved seasonally during February–April on demand around Holi and Eid, but were still 49% lower YoY.
- Exports softened further during May–June, as summer-season demand moderated and shipment rejections by China over pesticide residues affected trade.
- Going forward, exports may recover gradually as Chinese stocks decline, international markets reopen and quality compliance improves.
YoY Red Chilli Export Trend
Market Outlook
- Red chilli prices are likely to remain firm to steady until Madhya Pradesh new chilli arrivals begin.
- Export demand, particularly from China, continues to be subdued due to elevated prices, which may cap further upside.
- However, with new crop arrivals likely to be delayed by nearly a month, significant downside appears limited.
- A rise of Rs.8–10/kg in September is possible if export demand improves.
